From: Spiked-Online.com
Benjamin Lazarus
A High Court ruling last week means Australians will be guinea pigs for an illiberal policy based on junk science.
In Australia last week, the tobacco industry’s appeal to the High Court against the government’s decision to implement ‘plain packaging’ of cigarettes proved unsuccessful, with the court stating that the new law does not violate the constitution. Therefore, from 1 December 2012, cigarettes will be sold in uniform olive-coloured packaging covered with graphic warnings, and featuring a small generic font.
Hailing what was actually a widely expected outcome as a ‘massive victory’, the Australian government has argued it will save countless lives. The Australian attorney-general, Nicola Roxon, claimed: ‘This is good news for every Australian parent who worries about their child picking up an addictive and deadly habit.’ Unsurprisingly, the decision was swiftly welcomed by the World Health Organisation, which expressed its desire for a ‘domino effect’, where other countries considering similar legislation – including Britain, Canada, China, France, India, South Africa, New Zealand, Norway and Uruguay – will follow suit.
Certainly the Australian court decision will be used by campaigners in Britain as further justification for the introduction of similar legislation here. The Department of Health (DoH) consultation on ‘plain packaging’ – surely ‘gorno packaging’ would be a more accurate description – ended on 10 August. The DoH has hardly exuded neutrality on the issue, with government-funded groups actively campaigning in favour of such a law.
There are two key claims being made about plain packs by the anti-smoking brigade. Firstly that someone – particularly a young person – will begin smoking because of the nice logos and pretty colours on cigarette packs. Secondly that by implementing plain packaging, cigarette consumption will fall. Both claims are both deeply flawed.
As plain packaging has never been tested anywhere in the world, many of the scientific arguments used by its adherents are dubious. For example, one kind of evidence is based on questionnaires which ask people about whether they prefer a regular cigarette packet or a ‘plain’ pack – that is, one without logos and plastered with unpleasant images. Such survey evidence is not a suitable basis on which serious scientific suppositions can be based. It is, after all, unsurprising that people dislike packaging covered in gory pictures as opposed to familiar and stylish branding.
As writer Christopher Snowdon notes: ‘It is no great surprise that those surveyed usually prefer the normal pack, but it tells us nothing about whether fewer people would smoke as a result.’ In other words, hard evidence that plain packaging will have health benefits is non-existent; such arguments are simply based on speculation.
Surprisingly, the view that the plain-packs legislation will have no effect on smoking rates is also held by the Australian government. As pointed out by Australian Sunday Telegraph columnist Peter Van Onselen, the Australian government’s own tax-revenue estimates suggest it expects no decrease in smoking rates: ‘Treasurer Wayne Swan is relying for his much-anticipated return to surplus in 2012-13 on a largely unchanged windfall from smokers. It’s the same story in subsequent years.’ Unless the Australian government are planning to grossly inflate the sin tax on cigarettes, this seems an admission that the policy may not actually have much of an impact on demand.
