By: Compass Lexecon


• The ban will not eliminate cigarette consumption by menthol smokers in the U.S.

• Most current menthol smokers will turn either to black markets for menthol cigarettes or to non-menthol cigarettes in response to the ban.

• Black markets currently exist and are likely to expand quickly in response to a ban.

• The ban may have the unintended consequences of increasing criminal activity and allowing greater youth access to unregulated cigarettes.

Attached below is the complete study.


From:  The British Journal of Criminology (2010)

By Anqi Shen, Georgios A. Antonopoulos and Klaus Von Lampe


When it comes to the links between China as the counterfeit cigarette source country and (primarily) Western markets, the role of the Western states as the ultimate ‘market determiners’ (van Duyne 2007) by imposing prohibitive taxes on cigarettes, a socially and culturally embedded commodity, has to be highlighted. High taxation imposed by governments has contributed to an environment of demand for cheap cigarettes, which has been exploited by entrepreneurs capitalizing on huge price differentials and ‘global market ambiguities’ (Hornsby and Hobbs 2007: 565).