Estimating Consequences of a Ban

Mar 21, 2011

By: Compass Lexecon


• The ban will not eliminate cigarette consumption by menthol smokers in the U.S.

• Most current menthol smokers will turn either to black markets for menthol cigarettes or to non-menthol cigarettes in response to the ban.

• Black markets currently exist and are likely to expand quickly in response to a ban.

• The ban may have the unintended consequences of increasing criminal activity and allowing greater youth access to unregulated cigarettes.

Attached below is the complete study.


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