A Macroeconomic Study of Federal and State Automotive Regulations with Recommendations for Analysts, Regulators, and Legislators
Sanya Carley, Denvil Duncan, John D. Graham, Saba Siddiki, and Nikolaos Zirogiannis
This study examines how the U.S. economy is likely to be impacted by the combined effects of three automotive regulatory programs that were adopted in 2012: the U.S. Department of Transportation’s corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards for model years 2017-2025; the Environmental Protection Agency’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions standards for model years 2017-2025; and the California Air Resources Board’s Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) requirements for 2018-2025.
A combined analysis of these three regulatory programs and their impacts is provided for several reasons: all three programs share similar policy objectives (e.g., reducing the greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change); cover products—cars and light trucks—produced by the same industry; become increasingly stringent in the same time frame; have interdependent practical consequences (e.g., it is more difficult for automakers and dealers to commercialize plug-in electric vehicles under the California ZEV program when the federal programs are making gasoline-powered vehicles more fuel-efficient than they would otherwise be); and can be modified—through legislative and/or administrative action—by the U.S. federal government.
2012 vs. 2016 Perspectives
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