From: Pakistan Observer

Yasir Hussain

Tuesday, July 02, 2013 – The reliance of states complex matrix of binary code through internet has limitless potentials that come with equally big hazards that can lead to wars. Computers and systems connected to cyber space are highly vulnerable to potential exploiters, who can be criminals and or state-sponsored ‘warriors.’ There are several challenges related to cyber security. First is to identify that a cyber-attack is an individual act or is state-sponsored. The second challenge lies in assessing how a targeted state would respond to such an attack. Third is to create global norms on cyber security under an effective body to regulate the state and individual behavior.

State-sponsored cyber warfare can be traced back to the first Gulf War 1991 in which USA employed a computer oriented command and control system, paralyzed Iraq’s communications and used hi-tech smart weapons which led them to a decisive victory. Many scholars contest the idea that first Gulf War was an example of information warfare. They say it was information in warfare that is the use of computers and highly advanced weapon systems in war.  Nevertheless it was first Gulf War that made China realize the importance of computers and technology in future warfare. China started building its capabilities in this new dimension of war and now holds a strong position in the world to challenge the superpower on the cyber front. The recent alleged Chinese cyber-attacks on the U.S. and the Israel-U.S. attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities give a glimpse of extent of damage can cyber-attacks cause.

Despite the American protests and concerns Chinese hackers have continued their cyber espionage by stealing terabytes of data from American institutions. The intrinsic complexity of cyber space has
bereft states to dominate it which in the future potential cyber conflicts will play its due part.

Now it is becoming evident that future conflicts will be dominated by information and cyber warfare which has already started to strain Chinese-US relations. It is ironical that the more states rely on computers, networks and information systems the more vulnerable these are to disruption and cyber-attacks.

There is a growing resonance of the notion that traditional modes of land, sea and air warfare may be substituted with cyber space. Unfortunately, cyber laws and international norms have not been able to catch up with the progress in the cyber world. These remain almost adequate for addressing cyber-crimes.

There are no norms for cyber activities that states do against each other. The IAEA, which is primarily a nuclear watch dog can be given an additional hat of dealing with global cyber-security watch dog.

Recently, IAEA has adopted certain guideline towards the protection from threats of cyber-attacks on nuclear facilities. IAEA prepared a draft declaration for the upcoming conference in Vienna from 1-5 July 2013.

IAEA is keen to make further efforts to foster international co-operation and assist member states in the area through the establishment of appropriate guidance.

However, It further adds that, “more needs to be done to further strengthen cyber security worldwide because a cyber-attack related crisis can lead to a nuclear response. Though the IAEA proposal focuses on nuclear-security related aspects only, the organization is well placed to adopt a larger role and may have to ultimately expand its size and scope.

Though the powerful states are still reluctant to accept their cyber-warfare capabilities, they will have to give transparency and assurances once global norms appear. The IAEA may become a forum to bring all states of disparate interests on single table but what would the world do with non-state actors who only need internet and computer to wreak havoc that can bring states on the verge of war?