From: New Zealand Herald

By Justin McCurry

Regime’s next move could be to break into US computer networks to steal information and spread viruses, says one-time insider.

South Korea is bracing for a protracted standoff with the North that could include at least one missile test-launch and a border skirmish.

North Korea attempted to heighten fears of military conflict when it told embassies in its capital, Pyongyang, that it could not guarantee the safety of their staff in the event of war.

In another sign that it is determined to increase the pressure, Pyongyang extended a ban preventing South Korean officials from entering the Kaesong industrial complex – which it operates jointly with the South – for another day.

A government official in Seoul said there was no indication of an exodus of foreign diplomats from the North, despite the warning.

The message to embassies came as US officials confirmed media reports that North Korea had moved two medium-range missiles to its east coast. The Musudan missiles, with a range of 3000km, are capable of striking South Korea, Japan and US bases in the Pacific. Possible launches are expected to be tests rather than targeted strikes, and may be timed to coincide with the 101st anniversary of the birth of North Korea’s founder, Kim Il Sung, on April 15.

In response, South Korea has sent Aegis destroyers equipped with advanced radar systems to both of its coasts. The US had earlier said it would speed up the deployment of missile defence systems to Guam, a US Pacific territory whose military bases Pyongyang has identified as targets.

Experts and officials have dismissed Pyongyang’s threats to launch nuclear strikes against the US, given the rudimentary state of its weapons capability. But it could cause widespread disruption with a cyber attack, according to a defector who worked for the regime’s 3000-member cyber-warfare unit.

The regime’s next move could be to break into US computer networks to steal information and spread viruses, said Jang Se Yul, who defected to the South in 2008. North Korea’s hackers are suspected of being behind recent cyber attacks that paralysed computer networks at several South Korean banks and broadcasters.

“It would demonstrate that North Korea is a strong cyber power,” Jang said. “Their prime target is the US, and they’ve been preparing for something like this for years, including when I was there in the 1990s. I can’t say how successful they would be, but it’s a possibility.”

Officials in Washington offered a measured response to confirmation that the North had mounted two missiles on mobile launchers. “We’ve obviously seen the reports that North Korea may be making preparations to launch a missile and we’re monitoring this situation closely,” White House press secretary Jay Carney said. “And we would not be surprised to see them take such an action. It would fit their current pattern of bellicose, unhelpful and unconstructive rhetoric and actions.”

US attempts to lower the diplomatic temperature come after a prolonged display of its naval and air power in the region during joint military exercises with South Korea. Pyongyang has condemned the annual drills, which run to the end of this month, as preparations for an invasion.

The North Korean media continued to describe the standoff in dramatic terms at the weekend, accusing the US and South Korea of “waging madcap nuclear war manoeuvres”.

“This is aimed at igniting a nuclear war against it through a pre-emptive strike,” the Minju Joson, a government daily newspaper, said. “The prevailing situation proves that a new war, a nuclear war, is imminent on the peninsula.”

The prospect of a North Korean missile test is causing concern in Japan, which is easily within range. In Tokyo, Yoshihide Suga, a government spokesman, said Japan was preparing for a “worst-case” scenario, and urged China and Russia to play “significant roles” in defusing tensions.

The barrage of threats have failed to unnerve people in Seoul, just 54km from the demilitarised zone – the strip of heavily guarded land that has separated the two states since they agreed on a ceasefire, but not a peace treaty, at the end of the 1950-53 Korean war. Streets were packed with cars and shoppers as usual last weekend, despite rain and chilly weather.

The South Korean media have also been measured in their coverage. When North Korea vowed last week to restart its nuclear reactor at Yongbyon, South Korean newspapers devoted more space to government plans to grant tax breaks to home buyers. On Naver, the country’s most popular web portal, the most read news item last week was about Ryu Hyun Jin, a South Korean baseball pitcher who made his debut for the LA Dodgers.

Last week the South’s new President, Park Geun Hye, said the military would hit back hard if provoked. Her predecessor, Lee Myung-bak, was criticised for his slow response to attacks in 2010 on a naval ship and island, in which 50 people died.

An editorial in the Korea Times said those living in both the North and South had reason to be vigilant.

“Not a single expert can say for sure what will be the unpredictable regime’s next move,” the newspaper said.

“One thing seems certain, however: it will be Koreans, especially South Koreans, who will have to shoulder the risks of any misjudgment or miscalculation to be made by either Koreas.”

Diplomatic manoeuvres

Foreign diplomats in North Korea appear to be staying put, ignoring a warning by Pyongyang that they should consider evacuating amid soaring nuclear tensions.

Pyongyang had informed embassies it could not guarantee their safety if a conflict broke out as concerns grew that the isolated state was preparing a missile launch. But most Governments made it clear they had no immediate plans to withdraw personnel, some suggesting the advisory was a ruse.

Western tourists returning from organised tours in Pyongyang said the situation appeared calm, with life going on as normal. “We’re glad to be back but we didn’t feel frightened when we were there,” said Tina Krabbe, from Denmark.

Regent Holidays, a leading UK tour operator, reported a surge in interest in trips to the hardline communist state. Gillian Leaning, Regent’s marketing manager, said there had been a 400 per cent increase in inquiries about trips to North Korea. “Whether a country is in the news for good or bad reasons, people become curious. North Korea is not somewhere that is usually on the travel radar, but it is now. People want to see what it is like for themselves.” Regent Holidays usually sends about 200 visitors there each year.

The United States Defence Department has delayed an intercontinental ballistic missile test that had been planned for next week at an Air Force base in California amid mounting tensions with North Korea. An official said Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel decided to put off the long-planned Minuteman 3 test until some time next month because of concerns the launch could be misinterpreted and exacerbate the Korean crisis.

– Observer