From: Council on Foreign Relations
by David Fidler
What a difference one year makes. When 2015 ended, prospects for digital trade looked good. In bilateral, regional, and multilateral contexts, initiatives were advancing that were, in part, designed to increase opportunities for digital commerce and strengthen rules for it. The European Union launched its Digital Single Market strategy and was negotiating the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) agreement with the United States. In addition to TTIP, the United States concluded the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement with eleven countries, and was negotiating the Trade in Services Agreement (TISA) with over twenty nations and the European Union.
As 2016 ended, these initiatives were damaged, in danger of failure, or dead. The Brexit referendum began the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union and the single European market. With all major U.S. presidential candidates opposing it, the TPP agreement was in trouble before Donald Trump won. President-elect Trump confirmed the United States would not join, effectively killing one of the most important trade initiatives of the twenty-first century. The TTIP agreement’s chances suffered from opposition within the EU, the decision of the United Kingdom—a TTIP supporter—to exit the bloc, and the anti-trade policies of president-elect Trump. TISA negotiators cancelled the December 2016 meeting where they once expected to finalize the agreement, with doubts swirling whether negotiations would be revived given Trump’s hostility to trade agreements.
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