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Strong crop yields, higher productivity and slower growth in global demand should contribute to a gradual decline in real prices for agricultural products over the coming decade, but nonetheless, prices will likely remain at levels above those in the early-2000s, according to the latest Agricultural Outlook report produced by the OECD and FAO.
Outlook for Brazil
This year’s Outlook contains a special focus on Brazil, which is poised to capture most of the trade expansion to be generated by import demand growth, particularly from Asia.
Brazilian agricultural growth is projected to be driven by continued improvements in productivity, with higher crop yields, some conversion of pasture to cropland and more intensive livestock production. Structural reforms and a reorientation of support towards productivity enhancing investments, for example in infrastructure, could foster these opportunities, as could trade agreements that improve access to foreign markets.
Brazil has made outstanding progress in eliminating hunger and reducing poverty. Prospects for further reductions in poverty through agricultural development are growing, for producers of some food crops as well as producers of higher-value products such as coffee, horticulture and tropical fruits.
The Outlook suggests that Brazil’s projected agricultural growth can be achieved sustainably. While additional supply will continue to come more from productivity gains than area increases, pressure on natural resources can be alleviated by environmental and conservation initiatives, including support for sustainable cultivation practices, the conversion of natural and degraded cropland to pasture, and the integration of crop and livestock systems.
A summary of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024 is available from the OECD Media Division (+33 1 4524 9700).
Further details about the Outlook can be found at: www.agri-outlook.org.
An embeddable version of the report is available, together with information about downloadable and print versions of the report.
Information on the OECD’s work on agriculture is available at: www.oecd.org/agriculture.