Estimating Consequences of a Ban
By: Compass Lexecon
• The ban will not eliminate cigarette consumption by menthol smokers in the U.S.
• Most current menthol smokers will turn either to black markets for menthol cigarettes or to non-menthol cigarettes in response to the ban.
• Black markets currently exist and are likely to expand quickly in response to a ban.
• The ban may have the unintended consequences of increasing criminal activity and allowing greater youth access to unregulated cigarettes.
Attached below is the complete study.