From: Tobacco Control

Dardo Curti1, Ce Shang2, Frank J Chaloupka2,3,4, Geoffrey T Fong5,6


Background In Uruguay, real tobacco taxes increased significantly during 2005–2010 and 2014–2017 and decreased during 2010–2014. The effects of these tax changes on illegal and legal cigarette usage differed significantly when we compared cities in the middle and south of the country with cities on the border.

Objective This paper analyses whether supply side factors such as geographical location, distribution networks and the effectiveness of tobacco control play a significant role in sales and use of illegal cigarettes when tobacco taxes change, particularly given the price gap between legal and lower-priced illegal cigarettes.

From: Oxford Economics

Key Findings

This Report provides an overview of the nature of the illicit trade of cigarettes across a selection of Asian markets. It establishes estimates of consumption of illicit cigarettes and the impact this has on tobacco tax revenue. This is the sixth year of the Asia Illicit Tobacco Indicator Report, providing estimates for 16 markets: Australia, Cambodia, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Laos, Macao, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam.

  • Illicit Incidence was estimated at 14.6% across sixteen Asian markets in 2017, equivalent to 115.9 billion cigarettes where the applicable indirect taxes were not paid.

From: Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 46(1):226-228 · January 2010

Jochim HansenSascha TopolinskiSusanne Winzeler


One of the principal vehicles for informing tobacco consumers about the risks of smoking is the warning message on each cigarette package. Based on terror management theory, the present study investigates the impact of mortality-salient warnings on cigarette packages compared to warnings with no mortality threat. Results suggest that to the degree that smoking is a source of self-esteem, later attitudes towards smoking become more positive if the warning message is mortality-salient. On the contrary, if the warning is terrifying but not mortality-salient and relates to the source of self-esteem, smoking attitudes become more negative with higher smoking-based self-esteem. Thus, mortality-salient warnings may increase the tendency to favor smoking under certain circumstances. This fatal ironic effect highlights the importance of a risk communication that matches the self-esteem contingencies of the recipients, and it has urgent implications for health care policy.

When the Death Makes You Smoke: A Terror Management Perspective on the Effectiveness of Cigarette On-Pack Warnings | Request PDF. Available from: [accessed Aug 09 2018].

From: Public Health. 2018 Jun 28;162:48-57. doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2018.05.017. [Epub ahead of print]

Schafferer C1Yeh CY2Chen SH3Lee JM4Hsieh CJ5.



To assess the impact of a simulated 10% tax-induced cigarette price increase on licit and illicit consumption and tax revenues in 36 European countries.


Employing panel data for licit and illicit cigarette consumption, fixed effects regression models were applied for different income clusters.

From: NYU Marron Institute of Urban Management

From: Northumbria University Newcastle

von Lampe, KlausKurti, MarinShen, Anqi and Antonopoulos, Georgios (2012) The Changing Role of China in the Global Illegal Cigarette Trade. International Criminal Justice Review, 22 (1). pp. 43-67. ISSN 1057-5677

From: Nicotine & Tobacco Research

Marin Kurti, MA Yi He, PhD Diana Silver, PhD Margaret Giorgio, PhDKlaus von Lampe, PhD James Macinko, PhD Hua Ye, BS Fidelis Tan, BS Victoria Mei, BS



There are no independent studies measuring the availability of premium brand counterfeit cigarettes in New York City from licensed retailers.


We forensically analyzed the cigarette packaging of Marlboro Gold (n = 1021) purchased from licensed tobacco retailers in New York City, using ultraviolet irradiation and light microscopy to determine whether they were counterfeit.


We find that while only 0.5% (n = 5) of our sample exhibits at least one characteristic synonymous with counterfeit packaging, none of our packs can be conclusively classified as counterfeit.

From: Oxford University Press

Guillermo Paraje, PhD

Nicotine & Tobacco Research, nty098,

Published: 15 May 2018



Due to its nature, it is very hard to measure tobacco illicit trade in any product. In the case of Latin American countries, there is scant information on the magnitude and characteristics of this trade in the case of cigarettes. The goal of this article is to provide estimates on the evolution of the illicit cigarette trade in five South American countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru.

From: Nicotine & Tobacco Research [Epub December 2017], ntx239. doi: 10.1093/ntr/ntx239


The study was conducted in the RAND StoreLab, a life-sized replica of a convenience store that was developed to experimentally evaluate how changing aspects of tobacco advertising displays in retail POS environments influence tobacco use risk and behavior during simulated shopping experiences. In this study, 441 adolescents were randomized to one of the four conditions in a 2 (graphic antismoking poster placed near the tobacco power wall: no, yes) × 2 (graphic antismoking poster placed near the cash register: no, yes) experimental design. The outcome of interest was susceptibility to future cigarette smoking.

From: 11 NYU Journal of Law & Liberty, (2017 Forthcoming) Case Legal Studies Research Paper No. 2017-17  via SSRN

Jonathan H. Adler


Cigarette use remains the leading cause of avoidable death in the United States. The inability of many smokers to quit is a significant public health problem. The demand for a product that can help smokers kick the habit is an entrepreneurial opportunity. Yet government regulation threatens to hamper welfare-enhancing innovation and discourage the use of life-saving technologies, such as electronic cigarettes. In particular, the Food & Drug Administration (FDA) decision to “deem” electronic cigarettes as “tobacco products” to be regulated as tobacco cigarettes threatens to cartelize and ossify a dynamic, harm-reducing industry. FDA restrictions on truthful health information and comparative risk claims further inhibit potentially life-saving innovation by threatening to keep smokers and other consumers in the dark about the harm-reducing potential of e-cigarettes and reducing the economic incentives to develop safer forms of nicotine delivery. However well-intentioned, the FDA’s regulatory initiatives may inhibit the life-saving potential of alternatives to cigarettes and conventional tobacco products.