From: Public Health. 2018 Jun 28;162:48-57. doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2018.05.017. [Epub ahead of print]

Schafferer C1Yeh CY2Chen SH3Lee JM4Hsieh CJ5.



To assess the impact of a simulated 10% tax-induced cigarette price increase on licit and illicit consumption and tax revenues in 36 European countries.


Employing panel data for licit and illicit cigarette consumption, fixed effects regression models were applied for different income clusters.

From: NYU Marron Institute of Urban Management

From: Northumbria University Newcastle

von Lampe, KlausKurti, MarinShen, Anqi and Antonopoulos, Georgios (2012) The Changing Role of China in the Global Illegal Cigarette Trade. International Criminal Justice Review, 22 (1). pp. 43-67. ISSN 1057-5677

From: Nicotine & Tobacco Research

Marin Kurti, MA Yi He, PhD Diana Silver, PhD Margaret Giorgio, PhDKlaus von Lampe, PhD James Macinko, PhD Hua Ye, BS Fidelis Tan, BS Victoria Mei, BS



There are no independent studies measuring the availability of premium brand counterfeit cigarettes in New York City from licensed retailers.


We forensically analyzed the cigarette packaging of Marlboro Gold (n = 1021) purchased from licensed tobacco retailers in New York City, using ultraviolet irradiation and light microscopy to determine whether they were counterfeit.


We find that while only 0.5% (n = 5) of our sample exhibits at least one characteristic synonymous with counterfeit packaging, none of our packs can be conclusively classified as counterfeit.

From: Oxford University Press

Guillermo Paraje, PhD

Nicotine & Tobacco Research, nty098,

Published: 15 May 2018



Due to its nature, it is very hard to measure tobacco illicit trade in any product. In the case of Latin American countries, there is scant information on the magnitude and characteristics of this trade in the case of cigarettes. The goal of this article is to provide estimates on the evolution of the illicit cigarette trade in five South American countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru.

From: Nicotine & Tobacco Research [Epub December 2017], ntx239. doi: 10.1093/ntr/ntx239


The study was conducted in the RAND StoreLab, a life-sized replica of a convenience store that was developed to experimentally evaluate how changing aspects of tobacco advertising displays in retail POS environments influence tobacco use risk and behavior during simulated shopping experiences. In this study, 441 adolescents were randomized to one of the four conditions in a 2 (graphic antismoking poster placed near the tobacco power wall: no, yes) × 2 (graphic antismoking poster placed near the cash register: no, yes) experimental design. The outcome of interest was susceptibility to future cigarette smoking.

From: 11 NYU Journal of Law & Liberty, (2017 Forthcoming) Case Legal Studies Research Paper No. 2017-17  via SSRN

Jonathan H. Adler


Cigarette use remains the leading cause of avoidable death in the United States. The inability of many smokers to quit is a significant public health problem. The demand for a product that can help smokers kick the habit is an entrepreneurial opportunity. Yet government regulation threatens to hamper welfare-enhancing innovation and discourage the use of life-saving technologies, such as electronic cigarettes. In particular, the Food & Drug Administration (FDA) decision to “deem” electronic cigarettes as “tobacco products” to be regulated as tobacco cigarettes threatens to cartelize and ossify a dynamic, harm-reducing industry. FDA restrictions on truthful health information and comparative risk claims further inhibit potentially life-saving innovation by threatening to keep smokers and other consumers in the dark about the harm-reducing potential of e-cigarettes and reducing the economic incentives to develop safer forms of nicotine delivery. However well-intentioned, the FDA’s regulatory initiatives may inhibit the life-saving potential of alternatives to cigarettes and conventional tobacco products.

From: Legal Anthropology  eJournal, Vol. 3, No. 55: Mar 23, 2018.

by Mark Kleiman and Michael L DeFeo


The illicit trade in tobacco products (ITTP) is substantial and growing. The federal government does not now have adequate capacity to control ITTP. Other urgent priorities have compelled the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (BATFE) to substantially abandon its tobacco enforcement efforts. The potential gains from ITTP activity are high and unlikely to decrease under any currently probable scenario, while the enforcement risks are modest. That combination predicts continued growth in ITTP levels. The resources required to bring any illicit market under control are roughly proportional to the size of the market. Thus, current neglect increases the future difficulty of the problem.

From: US FDA


VII. Conclusion

While it remains difficult to measure existing illicit trade markets and use existing data to reliably predict future demand for illicit tobacco products, it is possible to isolate some of the key factors that may encourage or discourage illicit trade in tobacco products. For example:

  • Depending upon the standard, there might remain strong, legal demand for components that, while intended for legal products outside the scope of the standard, could be used to make an illicit product. If diverted into an illicit channel, such components would represent a means by which illicit trade in full-nicotine cigarettes might develop.

From: Asymmetrica